Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on February 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x503cbc08fed90c241556cef8c9f10b04c9a0097b955e10e4b160d25fed54bd8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,565
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20c1…b0cebacked No | 2c | 2,317$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed No | 1c | 2,050$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 2,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef09…b99fbacked No | 6c | 830.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -89.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd27…0af7backed No | 2c | 661.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 41c | 187.65$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.68 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 58c | 161.06$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.57 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714e…934dbacked Yes | 38c | 130.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +160.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…34debacked No | 58c | 129$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 103.44$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.41 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x329e…2eafbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 39c | 96.66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.63 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…9dc7backed Yes | 38c | 96.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5742…5e12backed No | 31c | 95.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa8…21dfbacked No | 64c | 94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.92 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 58c | 85.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x999d…5b2ebacked Yes | 37c | 74.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.81 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x797b…c1dbbacked Yes | 42c | 71.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.49 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 45c | 69.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed Yes | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 64c | 45.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 41c | 45.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 52c | 39.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 37c | 36.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…98a3backed No | 45c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…7c09backed Yes | 41c | 33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x212a…0032backed Yes | 46c | 32.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +118.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd833…ba96backed No | 55c | 31.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…1f70backed Yes | 80c | 31.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda3e…6319backed Yes | 51c | 31.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…2c45backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 46c | 28.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca1…f08bbacked Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9c…65dcbacked No | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97a8…cca6backed No | 60c | 19.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Yes | 62c | 18.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed Yes | 76c | 17.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc817…9c93backed No | 66c | 16.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 71c | 15.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on February 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 66°F or higher on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 56-57°F on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 58-59°F on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on February 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.