Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 66°F or higher on February 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe24c86a21431b10993e210a7e14ce8c1c13b869f4e62e746a9448eb10d2f9fa1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,676
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,676 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 20c | 1,260$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.5 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c75…a28ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…78bebacked Yes | 38c | 536.67$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.26 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 57c | 402.91$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 29c | 282.38$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.02 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…34debacked No | 69c | 219$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 202.8$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.27 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…6876backed No | 67c | 200$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 178.54$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.84 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf911…8d8ebacked No | 68c | 175.68$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.42 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d46…cf8bbacked No | 74c | 170$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35cd…9fa9backed Yes | 28c | 155$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 18c | 131.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329e…2eafbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…b4efbacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed No | 69c | 91.63$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 44c | 80.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 67c | 75.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 37c | 74.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9736…64b8backed Yes | 39c | 72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked No | 61c | 69.39$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddf…af5fbacked No | 66c | 65.2$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x999d…5b2ebacked No | 69c | 57.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 62c | 55.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 21c | 53.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77ce…e90bbacked Yes | 35c | 51.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5faa…b5bdbacked Yes | 38c | 45.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed No | 74c | 44.58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 41.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…65a5backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 63c | 36.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 47c | 36.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked No | 72c | 34.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…98a3backed No | 45c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 56c | 32.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…2c45backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…8d60backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…1f70backed No | 72c | 29.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 50c | 27.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1786…6974backed No | 78c | 23.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 49c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked No | 58c | 20.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 67c | 19.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 66c | 16.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…7e80backed No | 72c | 14.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 77c | 14.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 66°F or higher on February 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 56-57°F on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 58-59°F on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on February 11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.