TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 Week of June 22 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,634
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,391

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,634 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xedc8…3296backed No58c530.9$309 inWon+$221.7625661.3%157 W · 99 L+23.0wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb527…3b52backed Yes26c395$104 inLost-$104.186240.3%25 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-26%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x073e…8416backed Yes30c150$45 inLost-$44.56526.2%17 W · 48 L-6.9wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-28.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes10c108$11 inLost-$10.81,04834.5%362 W · 686 L-94.9wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes45c100$45 inLost-$451915.8%3 W · 16 L-4.3wins-0.23per pick38cpaid-65.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3c3e…5a86backed Yes44c90.9$40 inLost-$40250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9849…dc6fbacked Yes21c50$11 inLost-$10.52227.3%6 W · 16 L-4.5wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-56.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Yes46c40$18 inLost-$18.47243.1%31 W · 41 L-12.9wins-0.18per pick61cpaid-32.8%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.