Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Lorient win on 2025-08-24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51bdb050f51b1ee5eec446fff0705e7f69d46dfa5aa539e4000856fcbbb139da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,458
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,458 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa5dd…939fbacked Yes | 35c | 6,935$2,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,507.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95ea…d560backed No | 65c | 3,827$2,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,487.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf89f…e5a8backed No | 65c | 3,107$2,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,019.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 65c | 2,403$1,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,561.51 | 190 | 55.8%106 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd3…212bbacked Yes | 36c | 2,067$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,322.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf148…63cdbacked Yes | 36c | 1,395$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed No | 41c | 1,196$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.29 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Yes | 34c | 1,176$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.13 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…2b57backed No | 15c | 810.29$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 65c | 596.67$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.83 | 232 | 60.8%141 W · 91 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 64c | 500.79$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.51 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 20c | 332.96$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.63 | 246 | 42.3%104 W · 142 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a6…d90cbacked Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 37c | 272.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.5 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 74c | 237$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.99 | 110 | 70%77 W · 33 L | +18.3wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 65c | 179.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 64c | 179.32$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.76 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes | 35c | 172$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.8 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 64c | 118.98$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.15 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 65c | 103.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.42 | 208 | 60.6%126 W · 82 L | +12.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee4…b575backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 35c | 53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…751ebacked No | 51c | 45.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 65c | 39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 34c | 31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba7…8d2ebacked Yes | 73c | 26.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 63c | 21.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b58…b721backed No | 67c | 16.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…235fbacked Yes | 79c | 13.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Lorient win on 2025-08-24?this page
- Will FC Lorient vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901 end in a draw?No won
- Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-08-24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.