NFL · resolved market
Will Xavier Worthy score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51e5aa3dc43b281b6c062d5db6d76b99c9c419de19a5217612cb4d08946aa7fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,241
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x845d…620fbacked Yes | 8c | 2,775$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 32cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d80…5fd8backed Yes | 8c | 2,500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0431…6088backed Yes | 8c | 2,500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf05…70dabacked Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 147 | 63.9%94 W · 53 L | +12.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…b7cfbacked Yes | 8c | 1,072$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.77 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd249…6a1dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0507…40b8backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7b…04d8backed Yes | 8c | 750$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.23per pick | 30cpaid | -86%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff76…9c05backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +104%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…f663backed Yes | 8c | 437.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07b8…3842backed Yes | 8c | 305.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 17cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d46…bfb6backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36cc…9e29backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc90e…9e4cbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…8e6fbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27d2…b0f8backed Yes | 8c | 175$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 36cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd389…4b84backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa969…1452backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Xavier Worthy score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?this page
- Will A.J. Brown score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Carson Steele score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Dallas Goedert score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will DeAndre Hopkins score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will DeVonta Smith score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Isiah Pacheco score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Jahan Dotson score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Jalen Hurts score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
- Will Johnny Wilson score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will JuJu Smith-Schuster score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Justin Watson score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will KC Chiefs D/ST score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Kareem Hunt score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Marquise Brown score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Noah Gray score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will PHI Eagles D/ST score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Patrick Mahomes score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Peyton Hendershot score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Samaje Perine score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Saquon Barkley score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Travis Kelce score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will there be no touchdown scored in Super Bowl LIX?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.