NFL · resolved market
Will Saquon Barkley score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10a39eda8f920760a4fea3c6e583154d7cde79191cd0b825c4521e859cecb797
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb10b…5102backed Yes | 18c | 4,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…e76dbacked Yes | 19c | 3,629$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +107.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Yes | 18c | 3,059$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.67 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01f0…f002backed Yes | 17c | 2,059$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…48f2backed Yes | 18c | 1,545$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.14 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…b7cfbacked Yes | 18c | 1,514$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x024a…decbbacked Yes | 18c | 1,045$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.1 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…38adbacked Yes | 18c | 694.44$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +48%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0507…40b8backed Yes | 18c | 600$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7583…8e60backed Yes | 18c | 562.67$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf05…70dabacked Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 147 | 63.9%94 W · 53 L | +12.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf4…3ea5backed Yes | 18c | 550$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6678…d4b6backed Yes | 19c | 527.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 18c | 503.76$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.79 | 150 | 8%12 W · 138 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31ab…c575backed Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadeb…1816backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd897…a582backed Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa38b…5d4abacked Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Yes | 18c | 416.67$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x923a…343ebacked Yes | 18c | 416.67$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 130 | 24.6%32 W · 98 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee9d…63e1backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf5…6638backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x214d…8911backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc90e…9e4cbacked Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c91…fd02backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6df…ae66backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f6…050bbacked Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…b18cbacked Yes | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 166 | 45.8%76 W · 90 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7b…04d8backed Yes | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.23per pick | 30cpaid | -86%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x520f…a2c0backed Yes | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5b…69ebbacked Yes | 17c | 205.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1411…a536backed Yes | 18c | 185.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ed…e60abacked Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 30cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e6…ed6abacked Yes | 17c | 145.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad8…8a2cbacked Yes | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9171…a0c6backed Yes | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd7…95f6backed Yes | 18c | 115$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5b…864fbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7426…9e9fbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…a72ebacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 43cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…3d56backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2020…70c5backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 67c | 109.84$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 91 | 81.3%74 W · 17 L | +15.9wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +26%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5303…d66ebacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +239.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…9224backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36e…2833backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0acbbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 284 | 33.1%94 W · 190 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f38…98c3backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 79c | 95.24$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 153 | 32%49 W · 104 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ec…4d4bbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada4…f5f4backed Yes | 44c | 91.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac5f…122fbacked Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…2ba8backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 14c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 196 | 9.2%18 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbe…ee8dbacked Yes | 18c | 65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c13…2096backed Yes | 47c | 63.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a8…6378backed Yes | 20c | 61.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…55bcbacked Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f89…f0ebbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9546…0739backed Yes | 31c | 41.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0212…5e5bbacked Yes | 49c | 40.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…e7e5backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x893e…a75bbacked Yes | 34c | 29.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Saquon Barkley score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?this page
- Will A.J. Brown score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Carson Steele score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Dallas Goedert score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will DeAndre Hopkins score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will DeVonta Smith score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Isiah Pacheco score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Jahan Dotson score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Jalen Hurts score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
- Will Johnny Wilson score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will JuJu Smith-Schuster score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Justin Watson score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will KC Chiefs D/ST score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Kareem Hunt score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Marquise Brown score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Noah Gray score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will PHI Eagles D/ST score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Patrick Mahomes score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Peyton Hendershot score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Samaje Perine score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Travis Kelce score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Xavier Worthy score the first touchdown of Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will there be no touchdown scored in Super Bowl LIX?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.