College Football · resolved market
Spread: Texas Tech Red Raiders (-24.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x535cc4a6aaf7b42c3c1669884806188806fa9410409ae8781fa03d7f064e8bba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Tech Red Raidersof Texas Tech Red Raiders, UCF
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,196
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,196 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders | 46c | 11,024$5,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,962.27 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed UCF | 55c | 10,000$5,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,500 | 272 | 46%125 W · 147 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Texas Tech Red Raiders | 48c | 9,021$4,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,674.46 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed UCF | 52c | 8,870$4,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,612.58 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders | 45c | 3,000$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed UCF | 52c | 2,500$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked UCF | 53c | 2,227$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,174.78 | 176 | 55.1%97 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked UCF | 55c | 730$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.5 | 224 | 37.5%84 W · 140 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Texas Tech Red Raiders | 48c | 408.75$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.55 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Texas Tech Red Raiders | 48c | 400.58$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.3 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…b3e8backed Texas Tech Red Raiders | 48c | 314.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.27 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Texas Tech Red Raiders | 48c | 187.5$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Texas Tech Red Raiders | 45c | 85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10f8…bed5backed UCF | 52c | 26.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas Tech Red Raiders (-24.5)this page
- O/U 48.5Over won
- Spread: Texas Tech Red Raiders (-23.5)Texas Tech Red Raiders won
- UCF vs. Texas Tech Red RaidersTexas Tech Red Raiders won
- UCF vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders: O/U 47.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.