Mls · resolved market
Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2025-10-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x537487cb50a856da261c0a7e13154242bfb2400ec1571ce2f8c4a1ae5545cab4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 65c | 3,823$2,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,353.25 | 257 | 61.5%158 W · 99 L | +17.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd616…e5dbbacked Yes | 39c | 1,790$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 38c | 1,602$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.86 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 37c | 806.02$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed No | 36c | 611.14$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08be…5b1fbacked Yes | 44c | 573.94$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 54c | 465.37$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.84 | 132 | 57.6%76 W · 56 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 72c | 387$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.71 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 68c | 363$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.44 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefaf…26a1backed Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed No | 57c | 299.99$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 11c | 272.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Yes | 46c | 241.3$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…1646backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes | 25c | 80.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 57c | 75$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa87…dd7abacked Yes | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4584…fb0dbacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e68…a6d9backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed No | 72c | 29.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2025-10-18?this page
- Will New England Revolution vs. Chicago Fire FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will New England Revolution win on 2025-10-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.