Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Draxl vs Dias
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5384c3de38762770d83b499eba625150d855a4afefd0740bb5073ef56e3f5ca4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Diasof Draxl, Dias
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,635
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,143
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,635 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Dias | 62c | 400$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.22 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Dias | 62c | 271.21$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.62 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9531…18ffbacked Draxl | 38c | 253.37$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.28 | 116 | 41.4%48 W · 68 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Draxl | 22c | 189.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 408 | 36.8%150 W · 258 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Draxl | 15c | 180.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f6…615bbacked Draxl | 38c | 173.28$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.46 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Dias | 58c | 150.62$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.77 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked Draxl | 41c | 109.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 366 | 57.7%211 W · 155 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Draxl | 41c | 72.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 265 | 55.8%148 W · 117 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c4…4c57backed Draxl | 33c | 72.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0086…64babacked Draxl | 58c | 30.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…0e68backed Draxl | 47c | 29.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Draxl vs Diasthis page
- Draxl vs. Dias: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Draxl vs. Dias: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Liam Draxl vs. Pedro Boscardin Dias: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Savannah: Liam Draxl vs Pedro Boscardin DiasLiam Draxl won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.