Movies · resolved market
Will "Project Hail Mary" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 22m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53fc1a9947e88c91daa98163eb10d30e6a23ca1b52f776cb12997d78aa448ce2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $163,989
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $162,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $163,989 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3ce0…59d5backed No | 0c | 129,955$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…317fbacked No | 6c | 9,194$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 75 | 8%6 W · 69 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed No | 5c | 3,911$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed No | 6c | 3,781$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.35 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed No | 5c | 2,511$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.13 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 2c | 764$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4634…d158backed No | 4c | 540.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 29c | 440.48$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.24 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 3c | 344.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…3c8bbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52e5…2a2ebacked Yes | 66c | 152.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 19c | 52.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 119 | 24.4%29 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Project Hail Mary" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 22m?this page
- Will "Project Hail Mary" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 18m and 20mNo won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 22m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 18m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.