CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs Mindfreak (BO5) - CCT Oceania Series #4 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5431031ea2815cc880a6ab6b8ec3bd951733ea0a2b095d2690f2e8af8ce82c51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mindfreakof THUNDER dOWNUNDER, Mindfreak
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,524
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,874
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,524 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39b2…0ca7backed Mindfreak | 28c | 1,857$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,338.85 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Mindfreak | 30c | 1,769$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230.64 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…b413backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 73c | 1,179$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e5…519dbacked Mindfreak | 24c | 1,128$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.04 | 69 | 72.5%50 W · 19 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaccb…61dcbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 71c | 726.7$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.08 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 54cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd1…971abacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 70c | 562.3$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa7…db93backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 42c | 548.06$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.76 | 218 | 67%146 W · 72 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Mindfreak | 26c | 445.15$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.52 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda1a…3407backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 60c | 274.14$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.48 | 289 | 60.6%175 W · 114 L | +14.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked Mindfreak | 10c | 250$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 535 | 45%241 W · 294 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Mindfreak | 77c | 244.32$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.32 | 590 | 49.7%293 W · 297 L | -31.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa005…6646backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 25c | 228$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.69 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Mindfreak | 28c | 199.98$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.99 | 328 | 44.5%146 W · 182 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…0852backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 72c | 177.78$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc7…0602backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 72c | 160.39$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.89 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed Mindfreak | 40c | 133.01$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.81 | 418 | 47.1%197 W · 221 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…987ebacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 75c | 109.33$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x861f…a189backed Mindfreak | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 921 | 52.6%484 W · 437 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…f8d8backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 75c | 86$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 217 | 44.7%97 W · 120 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Mindfreak | 33c | 85.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 2,221 | 41.3%917 W · 1,304 L | -22.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 80c | 76.25$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 130 | 53.8%70 W · 60 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3d…1f52backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 79c | 68.7$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 280 | 52.9%148 W · 132 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Mindfreak | 27c | 63.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.49 | 402 | 47.8%192 W · 210 L | +11.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Mindfreak | 61c | 23.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.