Tennis · resolved market
Miami Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ann Li
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54526322b46ddffa4c937ba0945218cbcc502a24b5801807493af9aab5cec000
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aryna Sabalenkaof Aryna Sabalenka, Ann Li
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $169,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $169,619 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Ann Li | 5c | 30,664$1,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,605.26 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…08a9backed Ann Li | 13c | 21,614$2,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,746.94 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Ann Li | 3c | 16,563$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.62 | 1,106 | 41%454 W · 652 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Ann Li | 3c | 6,095$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.81 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d58…1aeabacked Ann Li | 7c | 2,927$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.24 | 80 | 31.3%25 W · 55 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Ann Li | 1c | 2,422$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 255 | 0.8%2 W · 253 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Ann Li | 7c | 2,379$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.17 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41da…0b58backed Ann Li | 4c | 2,100$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.9 | 127 | 22%28 W · 99 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Ann Li | 5c | 1,866$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.29 | 239 | 45.6%109 W · 130 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bae…e6c5backed Ann Li | 6c | 1,586$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 178 | 18%32 W · 146 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Ann Li | 3c | 1,454$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Ann Li | 8c | 1,266$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 287 | 24.4%70 W · 217 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8df8…59ddbacked Ann Li | 18c | 1,111$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 244 | 38.9%95 W · 149 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Ann Li | 4c | 1,061$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Ann Li | 3c | 889.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 372 | 30.4%113 W · 259 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Ann Li | 6c | 835$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 1,421 | 28.6%407 W · 1,014 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Ann Li | 7c | 766.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Ann Li | 5c | 749.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dca…72a5backed Ann Li | 9c | 746.69$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Ann Li | 9c | 700$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 593 | 48.9%290 W · 303 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Ann Li | 9c | 599.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 469 | 32%150 W · 319 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e8…b293backed Ann Li | 5c | 432.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 203 | 37.9%77 W · 126 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46ff…6672backed Ann Li | 5c | 405.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 155 | 12.9%20 W · 135 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Ann Li | 3c | 399.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3513…b52fbacked Ann Li | 4c | 396.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2d…40b1backed Ann Li | 5c | 379.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Ann Li | 4c | 356.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Ann Li | 4c | 290.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 157 | 24.8%39 W · 118 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x803f…b6b3backed Ann Li | 12c | 286.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Ann Li | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Ann Li | 5c | 242.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 1,265 | 29.2%370 W · 895 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Ann Li | 4c | 234.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Ann Li | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 118 | 26.3%31 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Ann Li | 8c | 151.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed Ann Li | 16c | 99.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 609 | 43.3%264 W · 345 L | -24.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ann Lithis page
- Aryna Sabalenka vs. Ann Li: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs LiSabalenka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.