Mls · resolved market
Will Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54b90f6c487b7aa5884aca6ac447c0fb72fa60bc80c06f303dd73bc7eee42ce7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,406
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 34c | 3,269$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,127.55 | 257 | 61.5%158 W · 99 L | +17.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 73c | 1,270$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 77c | 541$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.57 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 56c | 510$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.4 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 43c | 501.14$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.6 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfecb…19babacked Yes | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6979…d7a2backed No | 75c | 402.07$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 76c | 261$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.66 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 54c | 78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 206 | 41.3%85 W · 121 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 64c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 318 | 34.9%111 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Yes | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Portland Timbers vs. FC Dallas end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Dallas win on 2025-09-27?No won
- Will Portland Timbers win on 2025-09-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.