South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Unión win on 2025-10-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54bf3f15642137ea02d85da4d2607cd305ad3d86fd9b12891345dd3baf356e57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,906
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 64c | 7,750$4,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,761.4 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked No | 42c | 7,403$3,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,106.64 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 22c | 1,500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 58c | 590.74$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.25 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 31c | 551.72$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.16 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 45c | 480$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f14…9997backed Yes | 49c | 450$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…3ba9backed Yes | 48c | 450$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac6…509dbacked Yes | 48c | 450$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…da11backed Yes | 48c | 380$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6274…ce95backed Yes | 46c | 356.2$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 45c | 334.6$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.37 | 160 | 55.6%89 W · 71 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…6116backed Yes | 46c | 239.09$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.11 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…dac9backed No | 22c | 220$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked No | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5241…7342backed No | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…1b55backed No | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5930…a216backed No | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c9…e943backed No | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…fe12backed No | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd5…a793backed No | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9f…61a4backed No | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdca…04abbacked No | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1c…b5cdbacked No | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b8…ace1backed No | 52c | 135$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x536b…f188backed No | 52c | 125$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff97…12e9backed No | 52c | 120$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 44c | 119.88$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.13 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 78c | 66$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x203e…a9b5backed Yes | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 33c | 47.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…eea2backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b8…b046backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Unión win on 2025-10-21?this page
- Will CA Unión vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia end in a draw?No won
- Will CSyD Defensa y Justicia win on 2025-10-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.