Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Bencic (-1.5) vs Keys (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54e2d3744d2c9f06bfafc63006dac900c0f495c73e6b63402a7a8c70bf25ca78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Keysof Bencic, Keys
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,089
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,699
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,089 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4285…cfb5backed Bencic | 35c | 2,839$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.75 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…5e2abacked Keys | 65c | 2,277$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.78 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed Bencic | 27c | 936.29$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.19 | 302 | 25.8%78 W · 224 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5995…53b3backed Keys | 70c | 701.43$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.43 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Bencic | 30c | 684.29$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.29 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Keys | 76c | 515$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.17 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Bencic | 53c | 333.94$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.66 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…3e7abacked Keys | 70c | 280.57$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.17 | 848 | 57.4%487 W · 361 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed9b…6dd6backed Keys | 71c | 276.54$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.01 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e11…e1f5backed Bencic | 35c | 240.25$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.09 | 214 | 51.4%110 W · 104 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Keys | 65c | 218.94$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.63 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Bencic | 28c | 150.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb804…cd66backed Bencic | 45c | 64.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 154 | 16.2%25 W · 129 L | -12.1wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Keys | 71c | 41.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Keys | 65c | 35.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 336 | 61.3%206 W · 130 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Keys | 65c | 19.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Bencic (-1.5) vs Keys (+1.5)this page
- Credit One Charleston Open: Madison Keys vs Belinda BencicMadison Keys won
- Keys vs. Bencic: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Keys vs. Bencic: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Madison Keys vs. Belinda Bencic: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Keys vs BencicBencic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.