TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Set Handicap: Bencic (-1.5) vs Keys (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Keysof Bencic, Keys
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,089
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,699

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,089 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4285…cfb5backed Bencic35c2,839$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.754040%16 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…5e2abacked Keys65c2,277$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.787635.5%27 W · 49 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe5af…f9e3backed Bencic27c936.29$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.1930225.8%78 W · 224 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5995…53b3backed Keys70c701.43$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.437848.7%38 W · 40 L-5.8wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Bencic30c684.29$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.2924637.4%92 W · 154 L-0.9wins0.00per pick38cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Keys76c515$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.177,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Bencic53c333.94$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.662,52339.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L-3.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f57…3e7abacked Keys70c280.57$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.1784857.4%487 W · 361 L+0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed9b…6dd6backed Keys71c276.54$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.011580%12 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e11…e1f5backed Bencic35c240.25$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.0921451.4%110 W · 104 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Keys65c218.94$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.639,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Bencic28c150.14$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.043,87135%1,353 W · 2,518 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb804…cd66backed Bencic45c64.47$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0115416.2%25 W · 129 L-12.1wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-42.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Keys71c41.27$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.971,41441.1%581 W · 833 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed Keys65c35.33$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3733661.3%206 W · 130 L+12.6wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd78e…6421backed Keys65c19.58$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8593557.3%536 W · 399 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.