Champions League · resolved market
Will Red Star Belgrade beat Young Boys?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5516f1147aae04b810f38ba47524ff1700889a41d8df84366157c643b06616d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,854
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,854 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c11…c7e6backed Yes | 43c | 2,313$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,313.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +95%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed No | 60c | 1,873$1,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,115.03 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…dcb9backed Yes | 37c | 707.46$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf00f…711abacked No | 63c | 649.85$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.86 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 62c | 418.01$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.74 | 368 | 51.1%188 W · 180 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 61c | 401.24$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.09 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 46c | 233.5$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.73 | 204 | 62.3%127 W · 77 L | +19.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5502…207ebacked Yes | 39c | 167.15$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.96 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed Yes | 37c | 120$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b9…ad6ebacked No | 64c | 101.56$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 36c | 96.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.8 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7db…65afbacked Yes | 68c | 26.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…4395backed Yes | 80c | 15.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Red Star Belgrade beat Young Boys?this page
- Will Young Boys beat Red Star Belgrade?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.