College Football · resolved market
Spread: Texas State (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5580d1b97cf8f2177e868ee52e0ff4a265873e69ad84d12d8b2fe49c1bafaa0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marshallof Texas State, Marshall
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,304
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,303
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,304 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Texas State | 54c | 11,087$5,987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,986.72 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Marshall | 46c | 6,730$3,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,634.2 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Texas State | 52c | 5,630$2,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,927.6 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Marshall | 48c | 3,790$1,819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,970.8 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…9ed3backed Marshall | 46c | 3,261$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,760.87 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Marshall | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x281d…814fbacked Marshall | 46c | 1,400$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Texas State | 54c | 378.69$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.45 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Marshall | 49c | 210$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.1 | 132 | 53.8%71 W · 61 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Marshall | 48c | 130$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.6 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Marshall | 46c | 59.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Marshall | 44c | 53.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 160 | 44.4%71 W · 89 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c5…c8ddbacked Texas State | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 54cpaid | -72%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas State (-2.5)this page
- O/U 65.5Over won
- Texas State vs. MarshallMarshall won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.