College Football · resolved market
Texas State vs. Marshall
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x944a1885353e162a3f9190bc0e0e6cc4bfd13f6db06d351c2c6787088ff3ef07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marshallof Texas State, Marshall
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,008
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Texas State | 59c | 53,396$31,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,457.9 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Marshall | 41c | 18,117$7,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,689.07 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Marshall | 40c | 17,955$7,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,691.46 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Marshall | 42c | 7,425$3,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,306.5 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Marshall | 43c | 2,804$1,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,601.84 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Marshall | 42c | 1,938$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,133.57 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Marshall | 41c | 1,700$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996 | 256 | 29.3%75 W · 181 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Marshall | 41c | 1,400$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Marshall | 41c | 1,240$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.51 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Marshall | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590 | 169 | 45.6%77 W · 92 L | +9.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedae…584fbacked Marshall | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Marshall | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1e…88d5backed Marshall | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63af…0a25backed Marshall | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked Marshall | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590 | 64 | 65.6%42 W · 22 L | +14.8wins | +0.23per pick | 42cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Marshall | 42c | 897.44$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.42 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Marshall | 41c | 600$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Texas State | 80c | 497$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Marshall | 43c | 400$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Marshall | 42c | 314.54$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.44 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc648…259cbacked Marshall | 41c | 300$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8480…293ebacked Marshall | 41c | 300$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f83…825cbacked Texas State | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa52e…e2c4backed Marshall | 41c | 300$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Marshall | 41c | 245.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.68 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Texas State | 65c | 229.76$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.22 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Marshall | 49c | 229.03$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.48 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Texas State | 67c | 204.73$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.82 | 276 | 48.9%135 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Texas State | 48c | 203.43$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.51 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Marshall | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Marshall | 43c | 174.42$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.42 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Marshall | 26c | 174$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.76 | 258 | 19.8%51 W · 207 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Texas State | 47c | 171.9$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.8 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe931…138bbacked Texas State | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x792c…a2ecbacked Marshall | 43c | 165$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Marshall | 41c | 143.22$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.71 | 160 | 44.4%71 W · 89 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Marshall | 41c | 120.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.07 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +12.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed Marshall | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.11 | 168 | 39.9%67 W · 101 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Marshall | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2862…b2ddbacked Marshall | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54ff…a589backed Texas State | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x308e…83dbbacked Texas State | 58c | 81$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf4…a942backed Marshall | 43c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Texas State | 15c | 78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Marshall | 41c | 77.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.73 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Marshall | 43c | 74$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 402 | 44.8%180 W · 222 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…b3a3backed Texas State | 58c | 64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2343…6f72backed Marshall | 42c | 58.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Texas State | 56c | 56.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c0…be99backed Marshall | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d56…311cbacked Texas State | 48c | 53.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a2…d4ddbacked Marshall | 45c | 52.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60b0…990bbacked Texas State | 58c | 51.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Marshall | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 241 | 57.3%138 W · 103 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6158…81bcbacked Texas State | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…9282backed Marshall | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Marshall | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc757…f18cbacked Marshall | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe530…a2cabacked Marshall | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Marshall | 42c | 43.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…3f15backed Texas State | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Marshall | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 176 | 34.7%61 W · 115 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Marshall | 42c | 38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 216 | 29.2%63 W · 153 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00b4…9798backed Marshall | 42c | 35.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +61%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Marshall | 41c | 35.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 280 | 32.9%92 W · 188 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x916c…a580backed Marshall | 43c | 32.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -49%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…e2b1backed Texas State | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…7ee3backed Marshall | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d4f…3d87backed Marshall | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Marshall | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ce…6d68backed Marshall | 72c | 18.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas State vs. Marshallthis page
- O/U 65.5Over won
- Spread: Texas State (-2.5)Marshall won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.