Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Ferencvárosi TC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x559970b903599bbfbff4abee7e09a121766e46782e3070c22fe79c63191d4b7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 76c | 4,111$3,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.35 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2a…9ee3backed Yes | 25c | 2,312$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.64 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…b79abacked Yes | 24c | 1,366$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked No | 78c | 1,331$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.82 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 18c | 1,285$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.31 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Yes | 23c | 1,000$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.27 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 74c | 498.05$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.28 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 25c | 432.5$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.37 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 23c | 412$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.16 | 139 | 20.1%28 W · 111 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed No | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 76c | 326$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.24 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…6ba8backed Yes | 23c | 260.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Yes | 14c | 142$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a36…4121backed Yes | 18c | 130.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Yes | 25c | 130$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35a7…4293backed Yes | 19c | 100.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7157…7ba4backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…790dbacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d97…7d3bbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7bb…0fd6backed No | 75c | 66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 25c | 59.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 56 | 76.8%43 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…38ccbacked No | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9430…97cebacked No | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…9838backed No | 76c | 26.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd4…9cebbacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 74cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77ec…4f9cbacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf9…1f3bbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2d…a9b1backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf9…142bbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1d…6d86backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed No | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 168 | 56.5%95 W · 73 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Ferencvárosi TC end in a draw?this page
- Will Ferencvárosi TC win on 2026-01-29?No won
- Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-01-29?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.