NFL · resolved market
Big Game: Scorigami?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55a590e8916c729e47b9e9e4cecbe562fe2d25b5e9aa5a43ef5dd86f881585bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,229
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,229 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd5d8…e9a1backed Yes | 5c | 8,534$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.56 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5c…c842backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb61f…9958backed Yes | 4c | 1,400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 965.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ce…c230backed Yes | 18c | 558.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4120…153dbacked Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad3e…2c44backed Yes | 7c | 445.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9fd…26f8backed Yes | 7c | 435.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.27per pick | 35cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41f9…84e6backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91c9…aaf6backed Yes | 7c | 290.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x862e…338dbacked Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd5…11bbbacked Yes | 4c | 280$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2f…7e70backed Yes | 7c | 270.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2e…c9cbbacked Yes | 7c | 229.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fa…be8fbacked Yes | 7c | 163.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe12f…d1babacked Yes | 9c | 158.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6dc…6b7ebacked Yes | 18c | 111.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde3f…8ce7backed Yes | 18c | 57.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.