Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Duke Blue Devils vs. Florida State Seminoles
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55aad8c3ce074bb8a514d40de91fafd47b899b0d48a8c2cf0ea358f5509d54f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Duke Blue Devilsof Duke Blue Devils, Florida State Seminoles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,294
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,294 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Florida State Seminoles | 12c | 1,775$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.29 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Florida State Seminoles | 10c | 1,554$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.11 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Florida State Seminoles | 7c | 1,500$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.11 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Florida State Seminoles | 6c | 1,438$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.02 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Florida State Seminoles | 10c | 1,039$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.57 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Florida State Seminoles | 8c | 999.69$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Florida State Seminoles | 10c | 874.05$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.42 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Florida State Seminoles | 16c | 854.51$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.73 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…9719backed Florida State Seminoles | 19c | 716.84$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.27 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Florida State Seminoles | 13c | 490.48$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.41 | 735 | 49.1%361 W · 374 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x708d…8a09backed Florida State Seminoles | 5c | 399.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Florida State Seminoles | 12c | 281.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 368 | 45.7%168 W · 200 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Florida State Seminoles | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 143 | 25.9%37 W · 106 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Florida State Seminoles | 18c | 240$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 614 | 46.1%283 W · 331 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Florida State Seminoles | 10c | 223.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x964f…ca58backed Florida State Seminoles | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Florida State Seminoles | 12c | 199.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Florida State Seminoles | 6c | 194.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Florida State Seminoles | 11c | 172.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…e2c7backed Florida State Seminoles | 18c | 167.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Florida State Seminoles | 28c | 143.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43d3…087bbacked Florida State Seminoles | 27c | 129.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…79bebacked Florida State Seminoles | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Florida State Seminoles | 11c | 89.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc76a…700bbacked Florida State Seminoles | 18c | 85.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe09e…5047backed Duke Blue Devils | 79c | 17.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Duke Blue Devils vs. Florida State Seminolesthis page
- Duke Blue Devils vs. Florida State Seminoles: O/U 161.5Over won
- Duke Blue Devils vs. Florida State Seminoles: O/U 164.5Over won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-15.5)Florida State Seminoles won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-16.5)Florida State Seminoles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.