TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Duke Blue Devils vs. Florida State Seminoles

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Duke Blue Devilsof Duke Blue Devils, Florida State Seminoles
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,294
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,139

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,294 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd218…b5c9backed Florida State Seminoles12c1,775$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.292,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Florida State Seminoles10c1,554$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.115,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Florida State Seminoles7c1,500$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.112,57947.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L-42.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Florida State Seminoles6c1,438$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.0212,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Florida State Seminoles10c1,039$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.575,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xea81…eeaebacked Florida State Seminoles8c999.69$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751,22727.8%341 W · 886 L-0.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Florida State Seminoles10c874.05$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.422,04832.7%670 W · 1,378 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Florida State Seminoles16c854.51$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.731,17325.2%296 W · 877 L-43.0wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-21.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28b9…9719backed Florida State Seminoles19c716.84$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.275831%18 W · 40 L-7.3wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-33.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Florida State Seminoles13c490.48$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.4173549.1%361 W · 374 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x708d…8a09backed Florida State Seminoles5c399.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201225%3 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09d2…cc27backed Florida State Seminoles12c281.12$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0336845.7%168 W · 200 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b7a…bc22backed Florida State Seminoles20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5014325.9%37 W · 106 L-8.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-28.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Florida State Seminoles18c240$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0561446.1%283 W · 331 L-8.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Florida State Seminoles10c223.78$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.784,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x964f…ca58backed Florida State Seminoles18c222.22$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-37.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Florida State Seminoles12c199.94$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.161,26043.3%545 W · 715 L+34.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Florida State Seminoles6c194.38$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.023,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Florida State Seminoles11c172.76$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.312,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecb1…e2c7backed Florida State Seminoles18c167.78$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe889…d0c3backed Florida State Seminoles28c143.93$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403737.8%14 W · 23 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-23.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x43d3…087bbacked Florida State Seminoles27c129.81$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1607…79bebacked Florida State Seminoles11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113520%7 W · 28 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick12cpaid+43%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e34…4480backed Florida State Seminoles11c89.15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.24330.2%13 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc76a…700bbacked Florida State Seminoles18c85.77$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.29540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe09e…5047backed Duke Blue Devils79c17.41$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.73151.6%16 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.