Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: 1000 reasons vs L1ga Team (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Play-In Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x561cdf6a4fe0bda3ca97960a596b9d44dc362f86a9c3079d33915d2f8c6a0ce9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- L1ga Teamof 1000 reasons, L1ga Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb39…129fbacked 1000 reasons | 3c | 1,200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…1d79backed 1000 reasons | 16c | 746.95$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.87 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x788d…99bbbacked 1000 reasons | 11c | 346.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…1718backed 1000 reasons | 15c | 314.51$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked 1000 reasons | 7c | 262.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4255…1792backed 1000 reasons | 15c | 258$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 137 | 31.4%43 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d3…9f1bbacked 1000 reasons | 14c | 172$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf081…abb6backed 1000 reasons | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a9…46e6backed 1000 reasons | 13c | 76.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4454…c78abacked L1ga Team | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: 1000 reasons vs L1ga Team (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Play-In Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: 1000 reasons vs L1ga Team - Game 1 WinnerL1ga Team won
- Dota 2: 1000 reasons vs L1ga Team - Game 2 WinnerL1ga Team won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.