Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: 1000 reasons vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa5923b17f8612b1954ac153fa852949e4ab06b49fe24d889ed29b55c049155f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- L1ga Teamof 1000 reasons, L1ga Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,258
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked 1000 reasons | 16c | 2,669$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.05 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…3984backed 1000 reasons | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f2…d84fbacked L1ga Team | 72c | 366.82$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.05 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x871e…6566backed L1ga Team | 62c | 226$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.67 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed 1000 reasons | 39c | 205$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.95 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8307…ad90backed L1ga Team | 6c | 200$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed 1000 reasons | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x687c…8c91backed L1ga Team | 47c | 150$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed 1000 reasons | 26c | 134.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…97b5backed 1000 reasons | 27c | 129.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked 1000 reasons | 21c | 123.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked 1000 reasons | 40c | 110$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed L1ga Team | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed L1ga Team | 59c | 62.87$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85d…6832backed L1ga Team | 53c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e2…d949backed L1ga Team | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: 1000 reasons vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: 1000 reasons vs L1ga Team (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Play-In Group BL1ga Team won
- Dota 2: 1000 reasons vs L1ga Team - Game 1 WinnerL1ga Team won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.