Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Rostik999 Club vs Stariy Bog Club (BO3) - Winline Star Series Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x562119b35c8219a6f1c1aae31bdca8f80cf14f31dcf720e5b38e712b25604436
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rostik999 Clubof Rostik999 Club, Stariy Bog Club
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,651
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Rostik999 Club | 44c | 418.76$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.04 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59e2…1c55backed Stariy Bog Club | 39c | 414.14$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.11 | 475 | 48%228 W · 247 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6f…b760backed Rostik999 Club | 65c | 308.09$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.1 | 255 | 47.8%122 W · 133 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f41…547cbacked Stariy Bog Club | 15c | 299.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 131 | 42.7%56 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0621…0417backed Stariy Bog Club | 27c | 294.74$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Stariy Bog Club | 51c | 225.2$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.67 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Rostik999 Club | 60c | 170$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.43 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…e006backed Stariy Bog Club | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d5…1119backed Rostik999 Club | 40c | 125.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf49a…8981backed Rostik999 Club | 75c | 119.96$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Rostik999 Club | 53c | 117.7$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.52 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Rostik999 Club | 47c | 106.97$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.45 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…19f8backed Stariy Bog Club | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09d3…fdc5backed Rostik999 Club | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a479backed Rostik999 Club | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 99 | 56.6%56 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Rostik999 Club | 67c | 69$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc29c…1e43backed Rostik999 Club | 50c | 60.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Stariy Bog Club | 45c | 56.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e4…3618backed Rostik999 Club | 49c | 55.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +50%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe657…b24fbacked Stariy Bog Club | 31c | 51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Stariy Bog Club | 51c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa573…417fbacked Rostik999 Club | 72c | 34.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fe…1538backed Rostik999 Club | 41c | 29.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94f4…77a2backed Rostik999 Club | 57c | 21.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Rostik999 Club vs Stariy Bog Club (BO3) - Winline Star Series Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Rostik999 Club vs Stariy Bog Club - Game 1 WinnerStariy Bog Club won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.