Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Team Lynx - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56c9a67f3351963c5bb3ae439ec1234aa443e98b0410aa043c6511413604439e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pipsqueak+4of Pipsqueak+4, Team Lynx
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked Team Lynx | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 268 | 43.7%117 W · 151 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Team Lynx | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 104 | 0%0 W · 104 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…cd14backed Team Lynx | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Team Lynx | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 122 | 17.2%21 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…c958backed Team Lynx | 44c | 825.79$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.6 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Team Lynx | 8c | 512.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Lynx | 17c | 356.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.93 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Team Lynx | 14c | 346.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbb…357bbacked Team Lynx | 33c | 301.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -40%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Pipsqueak+4 | 56c | 237$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.28 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Pipsqueak+4 | 62c | 160.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.27 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Pipsqueak+4 | 70c | 125.53$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 56c | 118.04$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.94 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Team Lynx | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0580…f78bbacked Team Lynx | 22c | 64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 131 | 29.8%39 W · 92 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Pipsqueak+4 | 61c | 57.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb829…4f5ebacked Pipsqueak+4 | 61c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 176 | 36.9%65 W · 111 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 65c | 15.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Team Lynx - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Team Lynx (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Pipsqueak+4 won
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Team Lynx - Game 2 Winner Pipsqueak+4 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.