NHL · resolved market
Blue Jackets vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57200e2763a7791ca634a1a85dd544f1d8e55cf305577166336683b980314bbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,672
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,440
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,672 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 53c | 4,525$2,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,132.18 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 47c | 4,142$1,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,946.74 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b4…90c6backed Under | 53c | 1,769$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.98 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 1,059$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.97 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 53c | 623$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.12 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e1…6851backed Over | 47c | 560$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…2370backed Under | 53c | 560$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad34…4386backed Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 48c | 486$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.28 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 47c | 333$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.51 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 26c | 205.26$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.16 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba1…b0b6backed Under | 53c | 145$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 46c | 124.26$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.16 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 52c | 120$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 47c | 111$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.17 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…a7d1backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -60%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 51c | 83.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…446fbacked Under | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 50c | 66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 50c | 66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 784 | 43.8%343 W · 441 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…f721backed Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…8163backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41dc…7ca9backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.37per pick | 50cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Blue Jackets vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5this page
- Blue Jackets vs. CapitalsCapitals won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Capitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.