TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: HMBLE (-1.5) vs Colossal Gaming (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
HMBLEof HMBLE, Colossal Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,916
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,821

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,916 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x58f8…dc70backed HMBLE80c7,214$5,767 inWon+$1,447.6340370.2%283 W · 120 L+31.3wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+9.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf964…a4cebacked Colossal Gaming20c1,976$395 inLost-$395.26136.1%22 W · 39 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x54ea…f74abacked Colossal Gaming19c1,368$260 inLost-$26010243.1%44 W · 58 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74a8…df59backed Colossal Gaming20c1,167$233 inLost-$233.3336034.4%124 W · 236 L-21.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-8.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7787backed Colossal Gaming20c1,143$227 inLost-$226.664443%277 W · 367 L-27.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Colossal Gaming18c1,014$187 inLost-$187.091,36837.7%516 W · 852 L-6.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x483a…01d6backed Colossal Gaming20c927.73$186 inLost-$185.55520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-56.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed Colossal Gaming20c923.55$184 inLost-$184.0324835.1%87 W · 161 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fbf…4605backed Colossal Gaming20c575$115 inLost-$11526042.3%110 W · 150 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f6d…71b4backed Colossal Gaming20c500$100 inLost-$1004751.1%24 W · 23 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+16.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd2a7…1fdbbacked Colossal Gaming18c236$42 inLost-$42.48425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-45.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Colossal Gaming19c145.26$28 inLost-$27.625640.6%104 W · 152 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe45…bb3bbacked Colossal Gaming20c102.25$20 inLost-$204035%14 W · 26 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-29.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x01e0…d1cebacked Colossal Gaming19c91.95$17 inLost-$17.081040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ad…0e38backed Colossal Gaming20c50$10 inLost-$1017953.6%96 W · 83 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb731…5797backed HMBLE77c20.77$16 inWon+$4.771258.3%7 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.