Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: HMBLE (-2.5) vs Colossal Gaming (+2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac01daaa7afaa903e22ffab7f95c7186891b0e8cf254e5b2079f121c563a4775
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- HMBLEof HMBLE, Colossal Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,417
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,162
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,417 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d9f…787abacked HMBLE | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,959.96 | 610 | 45.2%276 W · 334 L | +35.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…186dbacked Colossal Gaming | 48c | 1,147$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.34 | 221 | 42.5%94 W · 127 L | -13.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Colossal Gaming | 49c | 940.01$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.04 | 780 | 50%390 W · 390 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f17…7035backed HMBLE | 53c | 788.81$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.11 | 115 | 67.8%78 W · 37 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x077f…b971backed Colossal Gaming | 49c | 501.53$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07f9…1513backed Colossal Gaming | 49c | 478.82$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.62 | 160 | 35%56 W · 104 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked HMBLE | 52c | 453.57$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.78 | 1,485 | 50.1%744 W · 741 L | +67.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bac…d241backed Colossal Gaming | 49c | 402.01$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.98 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d30…11f1backed Colossal Gaming | 49c | 316.54$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.94 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ae…5399backed Colossal Gaming | 49c | 308$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.82 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 34cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Colossal Gaming | 48c | 254.92$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.36 | 1,007 | 47.9%482 W · 525 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Colossal Gaming | 47c | 250$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 183 | 36.6%67 W · 116 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Colossal Gaming | 44c | 250$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 282 | 40.4%114 W · 168 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Colossal Gaming | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 1,156 | 45.1%521 W · 635 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e20…e3c8backed Colossal Gaming | 49c | 148.98$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb126…9848backed Colossal Gaming | 48c | 124.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Colossal Gaming | 44c | 120$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 214 | 51.4%110 W · 104 L | +10.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Colossal Gaming | 47c | 96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 450 | 44.7%201 W · 249 L | -29.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42ac…7b70backed Colossal Gaming | 49c | 83.06$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 92 | 30.4%28 W · 64 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed HMBLE | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 584 | 37.2%217 W · 367 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Colossal Gaming | 47c | 76.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 1,385 | 45.1%625 W · 760 L | -12.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2650…eed9backed Colossal Gaming | 49c | 63.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf63…d3a4backed Colossal Gaming | 48c | 62.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed HMBLE | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 751 | 50.7%381 W · 370 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a4…c3b5backed Colossal Gaming | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Colossal Gaming | 50c | 50.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3892…4093backed Colossal Gaming | 49c | 49.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 299 | 48.8%146 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…8d7dbacked Colossal Gaming | 49c | 42.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Colossal Gaming | 47c | 42.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 360 | 47.5%171 W · 189 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed HMBLE | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 285 | 59.6%170 W · 115 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffa…7710backed Colossal Gaming | 47c | 36.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…6471backed HMBLE | 72c | 36.05$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 134 | 73.9%99 W · 35 L | +13.8wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed HMBLE | 53c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 1,606 | 17.5%281 W · 1,325 L | -245.0wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed HMBLE | 55c | 35.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b9…7a6bbacked Colossal Gaming | 48c | 30.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 181 | 48.6%88 W · 93 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Colossal Gaming | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x863f…7b79backed HMBLE | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 576 | 55.9%322 W · 254 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x568e…6980backed Colossal Gaming | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 37cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed HMBLE | 53c | 25.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 1,310 | 49.2%644 W · 666 L | -23.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Colossal Gaming | 45c | 22.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,831 | 17.1%313 W · 1,518 L | -236.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -46%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: HMBLE (-2.5) vs Colossal Gaming (+2.5)this page
- Game Handicap: HMBLE (-1.5) vs Colossal Gaming (+1.5)HMBLE won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Under won
- LoL: HMBLE vs Colossal Gaming (BO5) - LIT PlayoffsHMBLE won
- LoL: HMBLE vs Colossal Gaming - Game 1 WinnerHMBLE won
- LoL: HMBLE vs Colossal Gaming - Game 2 WinnerHMBLE won
- LoL: HMBLE vs Colossal Gaming - Game 3 WinnerHMBLE won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.