Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Boise State vs. San Diego State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58179c3d2571d40de365c69e9a7d722af0936092d5b2d0bc7dee492f5b19dca4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boise Stateof Boise State, San Diego State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,808
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed San Diego State | 46c | 2,121$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.84 | 429 | 48.5%208 W · 221 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Boise State | 53c | 1,069$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.75 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Boise State | 55c | 798.18$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.18 | 250 | 43.2%108 W · 142 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Boise State | 53c | 563.49$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.84 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed San Diego State | 47c | 250$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa47a…fd11backed San Diego State | 45c | 225$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.25 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Boise State | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 556 | 57.4%319 W · 237 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3f…3aa3backed San Diego State | 46c | 156.49$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.62 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Boise State | 54c | 93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 168 | 42.3%71 W · 97 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Boise State | 54c | 44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 348 | 42.8%149 W · 199 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Boise State | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.