Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Midtjylland vs. KRC Genk: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5880c869bfc975d5f994b55e3e8f3dce2675d3f1622f89b825e61ea2d754778c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,333
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,333 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x833a…5d74backed Over | 17c | 1,306$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 38c | 865.69$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.22 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 63c | 797.62$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Under | 37c | 736.51$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 74c | 597.79$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.69 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c7…bd87backed Over | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 38c | 407.26$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.05 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84d…8b3abacked Over | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Over | 62c | 120.97$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 147 | 33.3%49 W · 98 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Over | 61c | 114.41$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…22cfbacked Over | 61c | 101.44$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd549…296dbacked Under | 47c | 85.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.43 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 47cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Over | 62c | 81.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 53c | 69.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Under | 38c | 57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 60c | 55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 38c | 52.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Over | 61c | 50.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 132 | 56.8%75 W · 57 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e88…7d0cbacked Over | 48c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…e81dbacked Under | 39c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf780…9066backed Under | 40c | 31.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 37c | 31.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf841…b5bebacked Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Under | 39c | 29.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 71c | 28.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x727c…c1f5backed Over | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36c9…3f9fbacked Over | 62c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 69cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 49c | 23.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4e…9b6fbacked Over | 62c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa3…b15bbacked Over | 62c | 20.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc157…bd5cbacked Over | 61c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Midtjylland vs. KRC Genk: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Midtjylland vs. KRC Genk: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Midtjylland vs. KRC Genk: O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Midtjylland vs. KRC Genk: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: FC Midtjylland (-1.5)KRC Genk won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.