Tennis · resolved market
Newport: Hayato Matsuoka vs Alex Michelsen
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5888d9ec7617645787166dff11eeb18c5113fbd0e5dc385c90c123dfa15f9494
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alex Michelsenof Hayato Matsuoka, Alex Michelsen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,934
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Hayato Matsuoka | 3c | 14,691$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.62 | 9,038 | 36.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L | -196.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Hayato Matsuoka | 6c | 12,286$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 5,325 | 28.8%1,533 W · 3,792 L | -21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0267…7f7ebacked Hayato Matsuoka | 5c | 4,226$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.74 | 304 | 36.2%110 W · 194 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ace…c46ebacked Hayato Matsuoka | 8c | 2,346$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.82 | 282 | 21.6%61 W · 221 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Hayato Matsuoka | 5c | 2,215$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.74 | 1,132 | 50.3%569 W · 563 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f82…b06cbacked Hayato Matsuoka | 2c | 1,306$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Hayato Matsuoka | 2c | 1,134$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Hayato Matsuoka | 8c | 909$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.72 | 1,229 | 53.1%653 W · 576 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x249e…dca1backed Hayato Matsuoka | 2c | 702$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Hayato Matsuoka | 6c | 665.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 671 | 31.3%210 W · 461 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…d10dbacked Hayato Matsuoka | 4c | 542.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 589 | 31.1%183 W · 406 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2727…ef37backed Hayato Matsuoka | 4c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Hayato Matsuoka | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,882 | 35.5%669 W · 1,213 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Hayato Matsuoka | 8c | 162$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 1,832 | 53%971 W · 861 L | -45.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea3…b87fbacked Hayato Matsuoka | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Newport: Hayato Matsuoka vs Alex Michelsenthis page
- Set 1 Winner: Matsuoka vs MichelsenMichelsen won
- Set Handicap: Michelsen (-1.5) vs Matsuoka (+1.5)Michelsen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.