MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58bd4a7e2cbfb7613c9c13be4e0f58fef5e72c1b18453e20bc3c457df2cc8f9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colorado Rockiesof Chicago Cubs, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,154
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,154 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x67b3…a0a3backed Chicago Cubs | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…1d79backed Colorado Rockies | 54c | 932.5$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.5 | 262 | 45.8%120 W · 142 L | -17.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62ca…1277backed Chicago Cubs | 10c | 833$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 634.76$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.91 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e36…3fd0backed Chicago Cubs | 10c | 600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 17cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…379fbacked Chicago Cubs | 4c | 499.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x417e…85e4backed Chicago Cubs | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 4cpaid | +809.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Chicago Cubs | 52c | 354$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.86 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Colorado Rockies | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Colorado Rockies | 35c | 224.92$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.49 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Chicago Cubs | 59c | 212.57$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.31 | 230 | 36.1%83 W · 147 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Chicago Cubs | 51c | 195$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.61 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Colorado Rockies | 47c | 179$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.87 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Colorado Rockies | 30c | 174.76$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.33 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 119$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.12 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x287c…81b2backed Colorado Rockies | 30c | 106$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Chicago Cubs | 76c | 105.36$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 62 | 67.7%42 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Chicago Cubs | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 62.58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Chicago Cubs | 67c | 55.16$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…dd4fbacked Colorado Rockies | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Colorado Rockies | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Chicago Cubs | 54c | 32.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 351 | 37%130 W · 221 L | -17.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Chicago Cubs | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Chicago Cubs | 42c | 29.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Chicago Cubs | 70c | 25.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.