Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58bf55c981347a41ea87ed67b91f98cda0bf7820a3e4cf6a25b917794cb9f442
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,958
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,365
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,958 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 34c | 827.23$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.18 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 500.52$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.42 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…d8b2backed Yes | 9c | 381.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 5c | 361.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 29c | 285.1$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.85 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 6c | 251.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 35c | 196.63$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.59 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ce…7765backed Yes | 32c | 157.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 17c | 154.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 38c | 139.82$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.52 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 41c | 116$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 102$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb22c…8aadbacked No | 67c | 56.1$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 63c | 54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…15d6backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 34c | 34.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb291…4937backed Yes | 35c | 31.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 70c | 24.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…3f36backed Yes | 64c | 22.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed No | 63c | 20.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22b3…0a22backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -78%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 17.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 72c | 17.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a95…2d3ebacked Yes | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 10?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on July 10?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 10?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 10?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.