South American Leagues · resolved market
Caracas FC vs. Independiente Santa Fe: Draw at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5901fc492ccc2aa30631a505bc4394a74111c5b165e7958b04d2ecf6ba83b167
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,384
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,384 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb2ed…4418backed Yes | 47c | 2,121$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 53c | 471$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.63 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 53c | 470.99$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.62 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 53c | 470.07$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.14 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 52c | 217.33$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.01 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 53c | 143.06$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.82 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 46c | 117$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.18 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 310 | 39.7%123 W · 187 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 46c | 69.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…c70bbacked No | 54c | 64.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed No | 54c | 60.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 506 | 56.3%285 W · 221 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 54c | 58.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 424 | 62.3%264 W · 160 L | +24.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c31…5380backed Yes | 47c | 51.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 114 | 57%65 W · 49 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.