Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5964c338a23e2d8749989b304d01d99c72885c023d07d8414452e11ab655aeea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,066
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,196
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,066 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 26c | 463.73$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.58 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…2650backed No | 78c | 338.07$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.54 | 88 | 77.3%68 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 66c | 303$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.02 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 20c | 278.55$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.81 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 8c | 267.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 265.92$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.48 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 25c | 240.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.63 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 211.29$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 24c | 211$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 209.43$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 16c | 194.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 15c | 190$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…10b3backed Yes | 10c | 147.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 20c | 123.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1e07backed Yes | 22c | 103.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec83…7014backed Yes | 33c | 98.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 17c | 93.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 71c | 91.39$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 76c | 84.65$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 34c | 82.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x643d…f7ddbacked Yes | 20c | 81.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 72c | 69.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 63.49$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d1…1fd7backed Yes | 21c | 60.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…0367backed Yes | 18c | 57.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 24c | 49.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 25c | 46.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 76c | 42.79$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8699…f6bebacked Yes | 28c | 36.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +12.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd9…3c35backed Yes | 38c | 36.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 78c | 29.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 72c | 27.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed No | 79c | 27.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…620cbacked No | 76c | 25.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -6.8wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9e6cbacked No | 76c | 25.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 77c | 25.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 75c | 24.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 78c | 19.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 79c | 18.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 61c | 18.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 71c | 16.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 77c | 15.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1542…ee9dbacked No | 76c | 13.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C or higher on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.