Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49b2d3b715eccc4fb0b96924c84b7a492558d3db9cd2c35bd724d64559e93f44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 13c | 491.17$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.88 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 459.1$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.75 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 265.99$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 17c | 264.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 79c | 253.13$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 5c | 217.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 24c | 191.53$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 76c | 152.26$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 80c | 140.25$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…0367backed Yes | 7c | 139.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 75c | 138.26$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 131.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 19c | 121.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 10c | 104.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1e07backed Yes | 21c | 103.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…45efbacked Yes | 20c | 92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 88.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 77.78$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec83…7014backed Yes | 27c | 67.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d1…1fd7backed Yes | 19c | 60.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 56.63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…4359backed Yes | 21c | 55.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 42c | 51.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 23c | 47.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…07e8backed No | 80c | 46.74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 45c | 37.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 72c | 28.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 61c | 26.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 26.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 23.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 80c | 19.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 76c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 61c | 16.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C or higher on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.