Champions League · resolved market
FC Bayern München vs. Atalanta BC: Draw at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5981fb5dfc6efff05c9909cbac82dd766e1e63a009228d2bf026a7e29c794d8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,104 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2121…4804backed Yes | 30c | 519$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…2ce5backed Yes | 30c | 372$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 32c | 363.45$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.25 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 69c | 361.44$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.13 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b12…05f4backed No | 70c | 278$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x374f…64acbacked No | 70c | 221$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0758…afc5backed No | 70c | 215$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa533…87d0backed No | 70c | 177$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 67c | 157.23$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 260 | 47.7%124 W · 136 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 33c | 145.87$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.66 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c4…7c65backed No | 64c | 71.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked No | 68c | 67.87$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05bb…1879backed Yes | 33c | 57.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 67c | 54.69$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 153 | 49.7%76 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 69c | 48.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…849ebacked Yes | 32c | 47.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Yes | 31c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.4wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 99 | 66.7%66 W · 33 L | +13.5wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 28.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Bayern München vs. Atalanta BC: Draw at halftime?this page
- Atalanta BC leading at halftime?No won
- FC Bayern München leading at halftime?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.