Champions League · resolved market
FC Bayern München leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa812c88c87db2cc91ae20537c8b6688205c202e0c6449028930f3027ca49af2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,216
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,216 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 45c | 1,638$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.4 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Yes | 55c | 995$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.85 | 293 | 50.5%148 W · 145 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 45c | 979.67$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.86 | 260 | 47.7%124 W · 136 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 47c | 834.63$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.79 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 49c | 554.98$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.67 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Yes | 52c | 487.05$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.61 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 56c | 338$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.35 | 502 | 47.2%237 W · 265 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Yes | 57c | 274.54$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.05 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…fb1cbacked Yes | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…99f7backed Yes | 55c | 266.87$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.71 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a8…4d27backed Yes | 56c | 206.66$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.66 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4cf2backed Yes | 56c | 179.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.91 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f6…4892backed Yes | 56c | 179.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.48 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f17…66c7backed Yes | 56c | 179.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.43 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 51c | 145.87$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x482c…4da1backed Yes | 57c | 139.48$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 51c | 102.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff5e…a98cbacked Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe50…6eb6backed Yes | 54c | 90$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x78fa…137ebacked Yes | 56c | 89.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 32c | 83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 223 | 56.1%125 W · 98 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked No | 43c | 82.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed No | 48c | 77.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 150 | 38.7%58 W · 92 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 55c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 155 | 38.1%59 W · 96 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…c67dbacked No | 43c | 60.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3656…6a0cbacked Yes | 54c | 55.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bf…684dbacked Yes | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 344 | 49.7%171 W · 173 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 55c | 48.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…849ebacked Yes | 52c | 47.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a5…9445backed Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 45c | 39.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 142 | 20.4%29 W · 113 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 47c | 39.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 99 | 66.7%66 W · 33 L | +13.5wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 46c | 37.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f71…9a06backed Yes | 53c | 37.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 61cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked Yes | 54c | 36.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…7f3cbacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6d…0508backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7264…a39cbacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaed…88c4backed Yes | 54c | 32.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf29d…2d25backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +135.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x26ed…49a5backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +104%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…6c97backed Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…c727backed No | 44c | 24.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 46c | 21.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86a5…49e1backed Yes | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +112.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9072…fa42backed Yes | 55c | 20.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67a1…75abbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +39%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 55c | 18.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 607 | 48.4%294 W · 313 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Bayern München leading at halftime?this page
- Atalanta BC leading at halftime?No won
- FC Bayern München vs. Atalanta BC: Draw at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.