Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Hurkacz (-1.5) vs Ruud (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a858b779255d8232373e787c88cb984d927b13f13e4cbfabe248964e9a0c9a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hurkaczof Hurkacz, Ruud
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,648
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Hurkacz | 52c | 1,499$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.32 | 97 | 64.9%63 W · 34 L | +9.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf12f…b30fbacked Ruud | 48c | 1,458$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 700 | 41.1%288 W · 412 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Ruud | 47c | 540.92$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.2 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Ruud | 47c | 536.77$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.67 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…4004backed Hurkacz | 54c | 279.63$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.63 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…a701backed Hurkacz | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…7d3dbacked Hurkacz | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Ruud | 47c | 143.03$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce6e…1256backed Hurkacz | 53c | 140.09$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.84 | 260 | 43.8%114 W · 146 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…67a1backed Hurkacz | 53c | 140.09$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.84 | 659 | 42.2%278 W · 381 L | -25.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Ruud | 47c | 113.61$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.26 | 1,158 | 44.4%514 W · 644 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Ruud | 23c | 93.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 346 | 50.6%175 W · 171 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23ea…51eebacked Hurkacz | 54c | 91.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -36%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Ruud | 30c | 89.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 432 | 50.5%218 W · 214 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Hurkacz | 63c | 57.95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…58e9backed Hurkacz | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Ruud | 41c | 49.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Ruud | 46c | 47.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a5…2ce1backed Hurkacz | 53c | 46.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1930…691cbacked Hurkacz | 53c | 37.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 142 | 43%61 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x536e…4fd5backed Hurkacz | 53c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Hurkacz | 52c | 34.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf5…e7c3backed Hurkacz | 64c | 34.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc429…1c89backed Hurkacz | 55c | 31.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…3926backed Ruud | 52c | 30.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 593 | 66.8%396 W · 197 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9169…0359backed Hurkacz | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36dd…bfccbacked Hurkacz | 53c | 28.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe1…5b09backed Hurkacz | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5a…f31dbacked Hurkacz | 53c | 20.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Hurkacz (-1.5) vs Ruud (+1.5)this page
- Casper Ruud vs. Hubert Hurkacz: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
- Ruud vs. Hurkacz: Match O/U 40.5Under won
- Ruud vs. Hurkacz: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Ruud vs HurkaczHurkacz won
- Set 3 Winner: Ruud vs HurkaczHurkacz won
- Set Handicap: Hurkacz (-2.5) vs Ruud (+2.5)Hurkacz won
- Wimbledon ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hubert HurkaczHubert Hurkacz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.