Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Grind Back vs WinteR SquadronS (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a8652ae91d0e7d24875eb22bcc9d787cf069204c933ea0c3dfde15db1744c07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grind Backof Grind Back, WinteR SquadronS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,717
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,717 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x013d…0574backed WinteR SquadronS | 2c | 2,625$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0580…f78bbacked WinteR SquadronS | 2c | 2,625$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 131 | 29.8%39 W · 92 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x196b…4151backed WinteR SquadronS | 2c | 2,625$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 35 | 0%0 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked WinteR SquadronS | 2c | 2,625$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 44 | 2.3%1 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…318bbacked WinteR SquadronS | 2c | 2,625$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked WinteR SquadronS | 1c | 1,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 17.2%21 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf01f…e8fbbacked WinteR SquadronS | 16c | 1,067$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.72 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed WinteR SquadronS | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 104 | 0%0 W · 104 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d8…0175backed WinteR SquadronS | 2c | 970$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed WinteR SquadronS | 5c | 916$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 354 | 30.5%108 W · 246 L | -27.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked WinteR SquadronS | 5c | 916$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed WinteR SquadronS | 5c | 671$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…3ccbbacked WinteR SquadronS | 5c | 670.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 155 | 36.1%56 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked WinteR SquadronS | 30c | 418.2$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.74 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed WinteR SquadronS | 6c | 412$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed Grind Back | 71c | 375.16$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.26 | 294 | 66%194 W · 100 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Grind Back | 70c | 353.37$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.01 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4994…3e36backed Grind Back | 35c | 308.39$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.71 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +19.9wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked WinteR SquadronS | 35c | 276.16$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.37 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Grind Back | 73c | 196.19$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.51 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked WinteR SquadronS | 26c | 156.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…fd63backed WinteR SquadronS | 17c | 143.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Grind Back | 55c | 139.97$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.87 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Grind Back | 34c | 110$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked WinteR SquadronS | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 582 | 50.5%294 W · 288 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42e…59e1backed Grind Back | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc9…e4afbacked WinteR SquadronS | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked WinteR SquadronS | 33c | 56.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked WinteR SquadronS | 67c | 48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed WinteR SquadronS | 45c | 33.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87aa…8f24backed Grind Back | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb41…49a0backed Grind Back | 48c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Grind Back | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 404 | 42.3%171 W · 233 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.