Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Passion UA vs 1win - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a90fab360f91b084e521e0e322148170f844e17307f5648f820f36b4e3dc745
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 1winof Passion UA, 1win
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,760
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,303
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,760 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked 1win | 70c | 2,142$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.64 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Passion UA | 29c | 1,119$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.93 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Passion UA | 30c | 773.14$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.21 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked 1win | 60c | 708.75$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.5 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Passion UA | 40c | 700$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 130 | 27.7%36 W · 94 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Passion UA | 32c | 300$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed 1win | 69c | 223.97$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.43 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked Passion UA | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29f9…e310backed 1win | 68c | 183.38$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.68 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Passion UA | 32c | 174$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.68 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5d…99ebbacked 1win | 68c | 146.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.89 | 146 | 68.5%100 W · 46 L | +14.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked 1win | 62c | 105.98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.27 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…31b3backed 1win | 74c | 101.25$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 70cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked Passion UA | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Passion UA | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked 1win | 70c | 65.91$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed 1win | 69c | 47.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked 1win | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 468 | 72.2%338 W · 130 L | +36.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed 1win | 61c | 25.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Passion UA vs 1win - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Passion UA vs 1win (BO3)1win won
- Dota 2: Passion UA vs 1win - Game 1 Winner1win won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.