College Football · resolved market
Spread: Baylor (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cbe38b062ea9046084f850003f2f4a807b29d5b936dadf9915c0bf8cf009694
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houstonof Baylor, Houston
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,678
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,327
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,678 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Houston | 48c | 10,406$4,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,412.22 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Houston | 50c | 10,021$4,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,058 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Baylor | 51c | 8,721$4,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,406.93 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Baylor | 52c | 8,000$4,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,160 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Baylor | 52c | 4,885$2,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,540.2 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Houston | 51c | 1,667$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.67 | 190 | 43.2%82 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Baylor | 50c | 1,406$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Houston | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Baylor | 53c | 141.51$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Houston | 49c | 77.06$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x436e…e36fbacked Baylor | 51c | 74.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…598dbacked Baylor | 52c | 48.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Houston | 51c | 25.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa9…bad5backed Houston | 52c | 20.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baylor (-2.5)this page
- Houston vs. BaylorHouston won
- Houston vs. Baylor: O/U 57.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.