La Liga · resolved market
Real Oviedo vs. Rayo Vallecano: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d8253066cea7b1d764a5c29bc54dc38886bc9c969ff019b1714d42a2798d316
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,591
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,591 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Under | 59c | 7,637$4,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,131.06 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Over | 43c | 5,000$2,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,149.93 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed Over | 16c | 3,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 58c | 999.98$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.99 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 41c | 601.32$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.38 | 4,753 | 47.1%2,238 W · 2,515 L | -21.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 57c | 443.97$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.91 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | -8.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Under | 60c | 436.67$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.67 | 95 | 64.2%61 W · 34 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 40c | 372.35$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.94 | 280 | 55%154 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 10c | 170$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 41c | 130$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 791 | 33%261 W · 530 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 57c | 114.26$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.13 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Under | 61c | 107.02$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Under | 58c | 106.98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 494 | 47%232 W · 262 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 58c | 103.18$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.61 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…16c9backed Over | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 43c | 67.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 640 | 46.9%300 W · 340 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb375…59d6backed Over | 42c | 59.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 42c | 57.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 532 | 46.1%245 W · 287 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…598dbacked Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…1437backed Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Over | 37c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Over | 42c | 35.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…dfd3backed Under | 59c | 33.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…9a4cbacked Under | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 151 | 62.3%94 W · 57 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9c…a18fbacked Under | 59c | 18.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc734…feefbacked Under | 58c | 17.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Oviedo vs. Rayo Vallecano: O/U 2.5this page
- Real Oviedo vs. Rayo Vallecano: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Spread: Rayo Vallecano (-1.5)Real Oviedo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.