Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will OGC Nice win on 2025-12-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d8db9157a2c64629434e8037d8fd821a10b078dbe2a81f6dee05de791b9a927
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 16c | 8,915$1,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,429.6 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 10c | 3,179$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.38 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 12c | 1,752$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.39 | 350 | 37.7%132 W · 218 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 15c | 1,480$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 232 | 50.9%118 W · 114 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd797…95fdbacked Yes | 15c | 667.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 15c | 632.61$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.89 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +6.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 15c | 601$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.33 | 240 | 44.2%106 W · 134 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Yes | 14c | 600$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Yes | 15c | 544.02$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.16 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 15c | 258.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc65…19a0backed Yes | 21c | 238$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Yes | 17c | 235.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 15c | 232$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…b540backed Yes | 19c | 143$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 8c | 137.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 125$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed Yes | 13c | 115.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 16c | 82.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 130 | 16.2%21 W · 109 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OGC Nice win on 2025-12-14?this page
- Will Racing Club de Lens vs. OGC Nice end in a draw?No won
- Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-12-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.