Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d9f3e105194e8ecb29db58eb0dbe075d3dfa2bcbf55f7ca442dc4b560c15af3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed Yes | 22c | 527.58$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.26 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 15c | 524.07$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.42 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 17c | 481.55$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.62 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 15c | 400.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.11 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 18c | 368.12$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.85 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 14c | 299.89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 17c | 200.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 78c | 173$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 17c | 169.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 26c | 156.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 19c | 156.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 80c | 139.31$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 16c | 127.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 13c | 100.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 100.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 28c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 16c | 85.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 12c | 83.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 79c | 82.37$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 34c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 21c | 73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 23c | 73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f23…29b2backed Yes | 30c | 69.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 64.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 17c | 63.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 44c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 80c | 49.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 24c | 48.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 74c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 77c | 26.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 25.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa957…7638backed No | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 77c | 22.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 80c | 19.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 80c | 19.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 79c | 14.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.