Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a8633a1d594adac74d1952bf875b0f2e6b501a1e4c2e2ba7ba79e462c6e9d96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,920
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,097
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,920 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 47c | 2,680$1,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,431.85 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed Yes | 68c | 2,575$1,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.83 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 49c | 1,311$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.34 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 53c | 720$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.01 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 51c | 501.4$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.56 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…71a6backed No | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -6.6wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 29c | 497.58$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.41 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 50c | 497$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.7 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 54c | 421.27$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.46 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 55c | 404$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.36 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 26c | 386.19$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.78 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 66c | 379.43$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 52c | 331.34$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.85 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 52c | 315.61$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.83 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 49c | 313.92$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.6 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 46c | 272.03$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.69 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc948…c5c9backed Yes | 48c | 253$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2856…c8f9backed Yes | 60c | 249.12$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.85 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…7cafbacked No | 37c | 244.58$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 52c | 233$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.16 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…b02dbacked No | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 34c | 197$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.07 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked No | 32c | 192.51$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.31 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 35c | 182.23$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.03 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 55c | 180.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 42c | 176.25$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.81 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…a709backed No | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 38c | 170.37$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 38c | 170.33$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 30c | 146.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x697a…4024backed No | 39c | 128.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 62c | 124.17$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.07 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 67c | 118$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 38c | 110$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf64…9390backed No | 52c | 107.91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcca…3e77backed Yes | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +105.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 72c | 98.57$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f46…7a71backed No | 23c | 97.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 30c | 97.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 46c | 97.24$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.23 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418a…64c0backed No | 53c | 97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.41 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed No | 61c | 85.21$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 36c | 85.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 84.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fa…69a8backed No | 29c | 78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 63c | 76.1$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 29c | 75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 48c | 71.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 68c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 59.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x371b…8786backed Yes | 70c | 59.16$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 39c | 59.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 34c | 57.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.83 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 36c | 56.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 70c | 54.67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 51c | 53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b88…a191backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9876…86b4backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…5e72backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 33c | 48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…006dbacked No | 44c | 46.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 38c | 46.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 36c | 44.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…a3a9backed No | 38c | 43.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 58c | 42.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 33c | 40.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 58c | 40.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a53…1ee8backed No | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f23…29b2backed No | 28c | 39.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 41c | 38.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 41c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 48c | 32.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7071…91dfbacked No | 43c | 32.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -6.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 68c | 31.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 64c | 30.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x116a…a2f2backed Yes | 50c | 29.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…8110backed No | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b4…aec7backed Yes | 42c | 28.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +135.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 50c | 27.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…dcc6backed No | 49c | 26.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 51c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca5…ddfebacked Yes | 58c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 40c | 25.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 51c | 24.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 50c | 23.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 79c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.