Premier League · resolved market
Manchester United FC leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5dda7b50c09204f1c333f23ce751377d2003eee1acd73c07921adf6cdbc096cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,086
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,086 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 65c | 622.35$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.21 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 38c | 499.5$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.81 | 288 | 24.7%71 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 63c | 439.66$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.06 | 183 | 52.5%96 W · 87 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48b5…9167backed Yes | 31c | 227.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa68…8d45backed Yes | 37c | 212.43$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 63c | 206.39$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.4 | 210 | 56.7%119 W · 91 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 63c | 199.99$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd2…1e85backed Yes | 36c | 190.57$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.79 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…e4abbacked Yes | 37c | 103$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 27c | 81.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 36c | 80.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 966 | 45.4%439 W · 527 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…57e4backed Yes | 37c | 79.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 36c | 73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa33…ec2ebacked Yes | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Yes | 40c | 62.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -7.4wins | -0.29per pick | 57cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb676…2dbbbacked No | 66c | 45.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed No | 64c | 37.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.33per pick | 45cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 64c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 815 | 59%481 W · 334 L | +32.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae78…53dabacked Yes | 40c | 25.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Manchester United FC leading at halftime?this page
- Sunderland AFC leading at halftime?No won
- Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC: Draw at halftime?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.