College Football · resolved market
Will Iowa State beat Baylor?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5de6b0a0c66c276e01a816af1972bd14cc24fa869e281ff752ec18833ace16c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Iowa Stof Iowa St, Baylor
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,977
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,977 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd057…ae9fbacked Baylor | 29c | 6,190$1,798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,798.4 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Iowa St | 72c | 3,515$2,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.28 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Iowa St | 79c | 2,473$1,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x341c…ee7bbacked Baylor | 21c | 1,164$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd992…189fbacked Baylor | 21c | 836$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Iowa St | 65c | 810.85$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.68 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa805…83dcbacked Baylor | 22c | 250$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 102 | 20.6%21 W · 81 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2376…30f5backed Baylor | 31c | 137.7$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…1de4backed Baylor | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa45…0eb0backed Baylor | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Baylor | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iowa State beat Baylor?this page
- Will Iowa State and Baylor combine for 45 or more points?Over won
- Will Iowa State beat Baylor by 12 or more points?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.