Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e309d416e054def6a807c4620362415792621c88fba87ba2d6bb05580b44171
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PARIVISIONof PARIVISION, Nigma Galaxy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6111…4742backed PARIVISION | 62c | 2,000$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 38c | 1,943$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.46 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 34c | 242.8$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.55 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Nigma Galaxy | 38c | 204.87$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.91 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed PARIVISION | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cc…ce77backed Nigma Galaxy | 37c | 156.96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e3…d5f4backed PARIVISION | 66c | 152.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 166 | 41.6%69 W · 97 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf437…ff9bbacked PARIVISION | 66c | 150.3$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 321 | 48.3%155 W · 166 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312c…0f42backed PARIVISION | 63c | 91.95$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 372 | 52.7%196 W · 176 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Nigma Galaxy | 38c | 42.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 105 | 46.7%49 W · 56 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4d…dd64backed PARIVISION | 62c | 40.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed PARIVISION | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 508 | 55.5%282 W · 226 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x399c…6191backed PARIVISION | 62c | 32.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 59 | 78%46 W · 13 L | +8.7wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed PARIVISION | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 463 | 54.6%253 W · 210 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked Nigma Galaxy | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…4476backed Nigma Galaxy | 38c | 29.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - DreamLeague Group BPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 WinnerPARIVISION won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.