Fifa International · resolved market
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-03-31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e4ae5d3a637a30562e140752366465b8fab032713ba891d542b43f9967a93d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8230…5121backed Yes | 14c | 3,372$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.14 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 23c | 2,322$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.41 | 359 | 42.9%154 W · 205 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked No | 54c | 1,802$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.3 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 43c | 1,514$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.25 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked No | 74c | 604$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.26 | 120 | 36.7%44 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 74c | 399.25$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.08 | 237 | 38.8%92 W · 145 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 80c | 311.14$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.21 | 740 | 34.1%252 W · 488 L | -36.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 54c | 268.47$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.74 | 163 | 41.1%67 W · 96 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…251fbacked Yes | 53c | 247.76$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.54 | 111 | 67.6%75 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1847…d94abacked Yes | 54c | 180.07$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.24 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 107.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked No | 46c | 96.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.25 | 504 | 50.2%253 W · 251 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5d…2668backed Yes | 22c | 89.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 117 | 24.8%29 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 69c | 82.97$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 75c | 68.51$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 459 | 47.7%219 W · 240 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 18c | 67.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 161 | 16.8%27 W · 134 L | -16.9wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…2c24backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 24c | 57.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked No | 48c | 56.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 74c | 43.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 277 | 45.1%125 W · 152 L | -19.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 46c | 39.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 202 | 50%101 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 78c | 29.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 1,560 | 43.8%684 W · 876 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…58a5backed No | 48c | 24.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…03b7backed No | 70c | 23.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4693…bf61backed No | 53c | 21.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab35…118dbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 110 | 61.8%68 W · 42 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-03-31?this page
- Will Wales vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Wales win on 2026-03-31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.